By Simon Greaves
  Account Manager, Healthcare
  Public Affairs
  Hill & Knowlton Brussels

With the European Parliament elections and the constitution of a new European Commission due in 2009, Simon Greaves looks ahead at what will be an uncertain journey for the EU community.

The theme of change is not just the political flavour of the month in the current US presidential race but is to be a key theme of European politics over the coming year.

Following on from the celebrations that accompanied the 50th anniversary of the EU’s founding in 1958, 2009 will be a year when the Union looks forward rather than back. A host of new players will arrive in Brussels and have to get acquainted with their new responsibilities as Commissioner or Member of Parliament (MEP). Obviously, this also means that the whole public affairs community will have to get acquainted with them too.

A host of new MEPs and Commissioners will arrive in Brussels

The powers of the European Parliament – the EU’s one democratic institution - have grown exponentially since direct elections began in 1979 and are essential to any political communications campaign. But the landscape will look very different following elections taking place in June across the EU’s 27 Member States. Current estimates suggest around 40 per cent of current MEPs will not return after the next elections, either moving on or losing their seats as a result of shifting political moods. Industry representatives will find the MEPs they had come to depend upon as sympathetic to their interests will suddenly no longer be present to support a position, host an event or table an amendment. Reliable allies in relevant committees or delegations - even if they have returned as MEPs - will no longer carry the same weight after jobs are reshuffled.

The same is true of the EU’s executive, the Commission, made up of representatives from the 27 member states and each responsible for a specific policy area. All bring a particular outlook, attitude and set of preferences; an activist Commissioner can have a real impact on the policy direction of his department. But every Commissioner comes to the end of their term next year with the majority likely to be replaced. These decisions can have a global impact: witness the determination of Dutch Commissioner Neelie Kroes to pursue anti-trust cases against Microsoft, levelling a series of fines amounting to €1.35bn ($2. bn), or the drive by Greek Commissioner Stavros Dimas to set up the ambitious, and costly, REACH system to ensure the safety of chemicals. Each Commissioner and their retinue of advisors will have been the object of targeted outreach by industry representatives, who will have to immediately reach out to the new arrivals in Brussels.

Additional uncertainty is caused by the recent Irish referendum rejection of the Lisbon Treaty. This major set of reforms would have meant among other things, an EU President, a powerful High Representative for foreign affairs and expanded powers for the European Parliament. As things stand, no one, not even hyperactive French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, can say with any certainty what rules will be in force next June.

While not Year Zero, 2009 will offer challenges to industry representatives in Brussels and beyond. The personnel and rule changes will result in an unfamiliar institutional landscape that will have to be swiftly mapped. There will be a scramble as special interests groups and rival companies compete for the attention of the legislators and officials that have yet to determine their policy priorities. Much is unknown– but what we do know is that uncertainty can be bad for business.

Uncertainty – especially when elections are concerned - can of course never be entirely removed. Nonetheless, proper preparation through focussed intelligence and early outreach can give business representatives a competitive advantage over their peers and rivals. As organisations prepare to deliver briefings to influential MEP candidates during their campaigns, communications practitioners will need to be one step ahead of the likely ‘movers and shakers’. Trusted insight on the newly appointed MEPs will be invaluable to organisations in need of a foot in the EU door. Before MEPs even get a chance to warm their parliamentary seats, public affairs advisors will be compiling intelligence on their professional backgrounds, political commitments and personal networks, as well as examining campaign pledges and manifestos to pick up on trends that can indicate future priorities. Social media will also play a significant role in the European election.

While awareness-raising and relationship-building events are important, industry representatives made nervous by talk of urgent outreach activities should remember that the real work begins once the decision makers have settled into their positions, hired assistants and conducted other preparatory work. They will have a few months’ grace before the real business of legislating begins.

From late August, the EU corridors will be jammed full of business representatives trying to engage with these new influencers. Beating the rush is not necessarily achieved by being first through the door - having access to the right advice and intelligence-driven analysis can put organisations one step-ahead of the crowds. With the right groundwork, industry professionals can ensure their voices continue to be heard in an altered institutional landscape.

Uncertainty is only bad for business if you aren’t prepared.