My friend Matthew Warren makes a valid point in today’s Australian newspaper (and in his blog ) about the complexity of Australia's Climate Change policy and the Government’s proposed national emissions trading scheme.   As Matthew intimates, this is not going to be a popularity contest winner.   There will be big losers, the problem is that the jury is out on whether  the earth will be a winner.

Yesterday at an intimate post-budget luncheon, Treasurer Wayne Swan assured a small collection of business people that his next six months would be focused on two key government policy initiatives; getting the emissions scheme right and the taxation review.    That  warmed the hearts of one extremely vocal key player at my table, who seemed pleased that what he considered a more sober Government mind was now looking at the proposal.

Which is just as well.   As The Australian newspaper reports extensively, the Productivity Commission has responded to the Garnaut Report by questioning the need for an emission limit and also flagging that electricity prices and therefore other costs will surely rise – with little effect on  greenhouse gases. (By the way, the Productivity Commission is now in the middle of an inquiry into paid parental leave. We will all be tuned into the release of that report.) 

And what of petrol? Headlines in today's SMH newspaper shout that the end is nigh for our commuting way of life.  We simply can't hack these petrol prices and the distances we must travel simply to get from home to work and back.  The flow-on (excuse the pun) effect will be disastrous for transport and town planners.  Workers will move to inner cities with no parking, or to cheaper outer suburbs with no public transport.  Whatever they choose, roads will be clogged and emissions will pour into the atomosphere.  So, will Petrol  be included in the emissions trading scheme?  We’re not sure.  The Productivity Commission report recommends transport fuels be included in any scheme.  Some ministers have said maybe, others say no.  If there is a tax on petrol, will the already angry motorists and truckies turn on their new government?  And what about those Rudd ‘Working Family’ voters in the spreading outer city suburbs?  As my chum Matthew Warren says, they are doing a lot of commuting and  feeling the pain of current prices.  Can they sustain any more?

 There are signs the government is starting to look a little concerned about some of the recent pronouncements.  In this budget selling period between parliamentary sitting weeks, key Ministers are quietly repeating in gatherings all over the country that the good Professor Garnaut may wear the label ‘Chief Climate Change adviser’, but he will not be their only adviser.  They say they are listening to all the different views bubbling around board rooms at the moment.  The Productivity Commission’s response to Garnaut is the first serious discussion that brings a sober approach to this problem.  Feel free to add yours to the Treasurer, Minister for Climate Change, and the PM.

My friend Malcolm Colless who writes a political column for the national daily, ‘The Australian’ had some wise words today for Australia’s federal Liberal Party, now performing badly as the new Opposition.  Sadly for that side of politics, most of their state-based party colleagues (in opposition everywhere in Australia) look to be in similar dire straits.

In our largest and most populated state,  NSW, where the Labor government must be thanking Gods everywhere that they have fixed terms and are not facing an election for three years (even some of their most loyal troops are muttering words like 'unelectable'), the Liberal Opposition can’t land a punch.  No, the NSW Labor Government, like the federal Opposition,  is doing it to themselves.   If it wasn't for a loose coalition of media and the Greens, there would be no obvious Opposition in the NSW parliament.

But back to the federal Libs.  In the long tradition of nascent Oppositions still unsure of their role after more than a decade running the country, key members appear to be busy bashing each other while leaving the new Rudd Labor government to bask in the best approval ratings any outfit has received in more than 30 years.

No doubt Prime Minister Rudd is busy calming his excitable troops at the moment.  He has been keen to keep a firm hand on just about every ministry in the shop.  Staffers, even experienced ones poached from the state governments, are feeling a little hamstrung as the PM’s office effectively runs the show. Burn-out is bound to get to a few before long.  It is now legendary – and far from apocryphal – that the PM is Thatcher-like in the number of hours sleep he needs to keep on top of things.  Most of us, including senior public servants are more human.  This pace is taking a toll with grumbles, snaps, and a sense of exhaustion already obvious.

 
A former GP, the Leader of the Opposition, Dr Nelson might be able to prescribe some sort of antidote to match the Government’s pace, but he really needs to calm his own team down.  It’s hard when a number of experienced players are exhibiting real signs of depression and ‘relevance deprivation disorder’ common to a former ministers I have met over the years.  No-one will feel sorry for them, save for a few of us political junkies, but life after being so influential is very tough.  No wonder they appear to be dysfunctional, they really are. 

The NSW Labor Party held its conference at the weekend and I was there as a business observer.  What was striking at these always well run events (they don’t call the ALP head office ‘the machine’ for nothing) is how few business observers turned up this year.  Perhaps it was due to the local media campaigns linking large business groups (mostly property developers and the gang known as ‘pubs and clubs’ ) hefty donations to the ALP and political decisions made in their favour.  Or maybe some business people have given up trying to talk to this government?

Those of us attempting serious discussions with ministers and their minders (there was a sprinkling of the brand new federal ministers available for us to talk to as well) could not be unaware of the political intrigue on the conference floor and just about every nook and cranny in the enormous Sydney Convention Centre.  One poor business colleague had about three goes at talking to a key NSW minister, but was continually interrupted by the politician’s more pressing matters; doing the numbers.

It was all about the Premier’s plans to sell-off the State's electricity assets, much as his colleagues in a number of other Australian states have already achieved.  We all know that he lost that debate by more than 600 votes, but has vowed to do it anyway and defy his Party’s policy.  That’s a great showdown for us political junkies.  History buffs are also getting into it and diving back into the archives for the last time an ALP leader defied his party. 

The problem for the ALP is that not all business observers fall into the junkie category.  Most were appalled at scenes usually reserved for pub fights or Rugby League games.  The mainstream media has reported it well, with photographs of the unfortunate-looking Treasurer appearing quite mad.  Well, he was angry.  But the rich colour that is democracy at work troubled some of my business colleagues.  Indeed, some were clearly bewildered by it all such that it might make the Machine wonder whether it is really is a good strategy to let their dirty linen be so publicly washed.