HKDP Quebec Election Predictor: The Final Numbers are in!

posted by Brendan Hodgson

final_Predictionshkdp

 

Nearly a month, 100,000+ page views, approx. 37,500 unique visitors, and numerous media and blog hits later, HKDP’s Quebec election predictor appears to have (just about) nailed it… that is, if you had correctly predicted last night’s outcome. (click on the image for a larger size)

With the final voting percentages tossed into the mix, the end result showed the predictor giving the Liberals (PLQ) slightly fewer seats (45) from their actual (48), the separatist PQ scoring slightly higher (39) than their actual (36), and bang on for the ADQ at 41.

Not bad, I think, when it’s a system based purely on playing the numbers. Next up (sooner or later being the question), the next version of the Federal Election Predictor.

3 Comments
27

Mar
2007

Ian Barr

Funny enough, I was watching the results on CBC last night wondering how our Predictor compared.

27

Mar
2007

Brendan Hodgson

I was at the Third Monday meeting with Michael Geist, but my thoughts weren’t too far from the predictor; because no matter how confident you are (and we spent a lot of time on this), until the actual date, you never know if the formula is right, wrong, or (worse) really wrong.

10

Sep
2007

Brendan Hodgson

I asked the question a few weeks ago: What’s an election without an election predictor ? And with the

Add a comment