Brendan Hodgson » election predictor http://blogs.hillandknowlton.com/brendanhodgson At the intersection of yesterday & tomorrow Wed, 14 Oct 2009 12:08:41 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 en hourly 1 H&K Election Predictor 2008 Nails It! … (well, almost) http://blogs.hillandknowlton.com/brendanhodgson/2008/10/15/hk-election-predictor-2008-nails-it-well-almost/ http://blogs.hillandknowlton.com/brendanhodgson/2008/10/15/hk-election-predictor-2008-nails-it-well-almost/#comments Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:00:00 +0000 Brendan Hodgson http://blogs2.hillandknowlton.com/brendanhodgson/11283.aspx Thirty-six days, 72,000 visits, nearly 700,000 page views, and 100+ mentions across various political and media blogs and discussion forums later, and the moment of judgement for the 2008 version of Hill & Knowlton Canada’s Federal Election Predictor is upon us…

As always, there is considerable trepidation when the final voting percentages are added into the system. And as always, it’s for naught. When broken down by party, our calculation (baked in proprietary mathematical goodness) was remarkably close to the end result… In fact, it was off by - wait for it - six seats (6).

Official Results:    CPC – 143 / LIB – 76 / NDP – 37 / BQ – 50 / GREEN – 0 / IND – 2

Predictor Results: CPC – 143 / LIB – 74 / NDP – 38 / BQ – 52 / GREEN – 0 / IND – 1 

Granted, a few discrepancies appear when the data is analyzed at the specific riding level (meaning that a few of the ridings we predicted didn’t match up with the official outcome). Overall, however, the digital team at H&K is pretty chuffed that we were able to play along with the big boys – pollsters, pundits and academics alike – in the seat projection game.

Of course, we’ll let others figure out what this all means, if anything, to the art and/or science of seat projection. From the standpoint of what it means for H&K, however, it’s clearly become a powerful franchise for ensuring the H&K brand remains top-of-mind with target audiences during an election campaign.

As an exercise in social media activation, our respective French and English Facebook pages generated a respectable 700 referrals collectively, while the site itself received positive saturation across the Canadian political blogosphere. Traditional media sites also played an important role with MacLean’s alone driving 1500+ visits (and further amplifying our footprint). And not surprisingly, Wikipedia was a key vehicle for awareness-raising, driving 3500+ visits to the site.

Ultimately, it was interesting to see such a high level of engagement on the site itself – with an average of 5 minutes spent per visit – as well as by bloggers and digital pundits via their own sites. Likewise, it was great to see (where the stats allowed) strong representation by those audiences who matter most to H&K’s public affairs teams – government bureaucrats at all levels, elected officials, academic institutions, competitors, and corporations both large and small.

Oh yeah, and the Conservatives secured another minority government.

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Another Federal Election in Canada means another H&K Election Predictor http://blogs.hillandknowlton.com/brendanhodgson/2008/09/08/another-federal-election-in-canada-means-another-hk-election-predictor/ http://blogs.hillandknowlton.com/brendanhodgson/2008/09/08/another-federal-election-in-canada-means-another-hk-election-predictor/#comments Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:32:00 +0000 Brendan Hodgson http://blogs2.hillandknowlton.com/brendanhodgson/11142.aspx As had been rumoured for a couple of weeks and confirmed this past Sunday, a snap federal election is now on the agenda. Which means that Canadians will be going to the polls on October 14, 2008. And, of course, during these past few weeks – and secretly hoping against hope that the call would never come - we’ve been working furiously to prepare the latest version of the 2008 Federal Election Predictor (http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca).

And with only a few minor bumps and scrapes, along with the most ill-timed server outages EVER, it’s here!

What’s new this year? A simpler interface for one. More importantly, we’ve also launched our new mobile version (www.mobilepredictor.ca) for those who wish to make and share their election predictions on the fly via their Crackberries or iPhones. And we’re back with the team blogging on digital trends in politics and other insightful miscellany.

As always, we try to keep mum on the inner workings of the predictor, other than to say that for past elections – federally, as well as for recent elections in Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec – the predictor (and its provincial brethren) has shown itself to be almost frighteningly accurate. That said, the goal of the Election Predictor franchise has always been – unlike other sites that offer predictions – to provide a fun and interactive way for armchair pundits to view the numbers, and to test how shifts in voting patterns might translate into actual seats.

We hope you’ll enjoy this version as much as you enjoyed previous versions, and we look forward to your thoughts, comments, and critiques of the tool and it’s results.

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