The Climate Conversation

The latest commentary (at 23 November):

• ‘Climategate’ took centre stage this weekend, as hundreds of private e-mails and documents were stolen from the University of East Anglia and posted online prompting a debate over whether scientists have overstated the case for man-made climate change

• President Barack Obama is considering setting a provisional target for cutting America’s greenhouse gas emissions. Todd Stern, the US State Departments climate change envoy has said the department recognised America had to come forward with a target for cutting its emissions

• Discussions around media coverage at COP15 has been sparked following the BBC’s announcement that they will be sending 35 reporters to cover the summit, creating as much CO2 as an African village does in a whole year

• The ‘last chance’ was the spirit that dominated stories around the Climate Conversation – Gordon Brown tells environment ministers there are fewer than 50 days to set course of the next 50 years and more

The COP 15 Top 15

• ‘Climategate’ has pushed the University of East Anglia’s Director Phil Jones, up to top place as the most prominent academic in the media, followed by Sir Nicholas Stern, author of the UK’s Stern Report on climate change policy

• Pavan Sukhdev of Deutsche Bank, remains the most prominent voice from the corporate world. However, Brian Flannery, Science, Strategy and Programs Manager for Exxon Mobil Corporation has emerged as contender to this position

• In the political world, Barack Obama remains the most discussed and most prominent political leader, receiving nearly three times as much coverage as Hu Jintao, President of China

• Australian PM Kevin Rudd and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have increased their profile, primarily around their expectations of the COP15 summit

• NGO voices are still dominated by Anna Keenan of Climate Justice Fast. Along with Sara Svenson and Paul Connor from the same organisation, these three dominate in this category

• The recent appointment of Kumi Naidoo to Greenpeace, continues to win the environmental activist coverage and comment

• Celebrities are increasing their presence in the Climate Conversation as the summit approaches. Dutch supermodel Helena Christensen has risen to most prominent position, followed by actress Lucy Lawless and English heir to throne, HRH Prince of Wales

Key Media Topics

• Attention has moved away from the role of the US and China, from 34% to 14%, following the conclusion of Barack Obama’s visit to Asia

• Focus has switched from the role of developing nations to developed nations and their emissions, the latter an emerging topic and the second most prominent for the period

• The consequences of climate change has gathered momentum, primarily due to academics joining the discussion (the proportion of mentions in print media nearly doubled to 19%, blogs from 10% to 14%, and Twitter from 15% to 24%

• Attention has switched from the legislative implications of climate change and the role of the US and China, both prominent topics in the last analysis

Topics by influencer type

• Politicians are getting a smaller share of voice across the range of topics, with academics and NGOs making up the shortfall

• The role of the US at COP15 and beyond is a topic where politicians are getting an increasing share of voice, from 74% to 93% since the last analysis, unlike NGOs (down from 15% to 1%)

• More influencers are gaining a share of voice across a broader range of discussions

• Academics have increased their share of voice around investment in green industries (from 9% to 19%)

• Celebrities have a presence in six of the defined topics, compared to two less than a week ago

Influencer type by topic

• As we edge closer to the start of COP15, the conversation is shifting away from expected outcomes of COP15 and other topics are gaining prominence; Corporate representatives in particular have switched their focus to other areas

• The consequences of climate change is an emerging topic amongst all the influencers – having moved into the top five topics leading up to COP15, the discussion led by academics (36%) and celebrities (23%)

• Celebrities are becoming increasingly involved in the climate conversation as the summit nears and talking across a broader range of topics. In the last few days, they have started talking about the consequences of climate change and the role of the US at COP15 and beyond, a trend that is likely to continue

Influencers & media type

• The political conversation continues to lose its dominance across all media, down from 82% to 62% in print, 78% to 58% in blogs, and 71% to 44% in tweets since the 18th Nov

• Academics are receiving a larger share of voice on blogs (18%) and twitter (11%) than traditional print media (10%). Overall this group has increased its share of voice substantially over the period

• Reflecting the increasing number of celebrities joining the discussion, this group is making their impact felt across all media albeit a smaller number than the other main influencers

• The consequences of climate change is debated more by the twitter community (24%) than in print media (19%)