The Climate Conversation

The Climate Conversation gains political focus with EU leaders increasing their prominence across print and online media. China remains in the spotlight following the China-EU summit in Nianjing, and Australia’s internal rejection of a proposed 5% cap on greenhouse gas emissions gained significant attention across the globe. When looking at the most active print, blog and Twitter accounts commentating on the issues, the significant developments and observations were:

• Following the Commonwealth Summit, the Climate Conversation diverted its attention to the outcomes of the meeting. Countries in favour of a legally binding treaty at COP15 were widely reported across English language press. The generous scheme for funding developing countries, touted by Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown, received attention across the globe.

• Australian print media increased its coverage of the Copenhagen summit but only in relation to internal political events, namely the division among the opposition Liberal party regarding the proposed 5% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The outcome of the vote, which was rejected by the Senate, was also reported widely on in the global press, and particularly in the US press, as they acknowledge a similar law will need to be passed next year.

• Following the China-EU summit on 30^th November, China announced its commitment to exert ‘tremendous effort’ to meet the promised 40-45% reduction in carbon ‘intensity’ by 2020. China also urged the EU to increase its own commitment and support calls from developing countries for funding. Although welcoming China’s commitment to carbon reduction, the EU ‘struggled to assess the real impact of its proposal’.

• A document drafted by Denmark with ‘tough’ proposed carbon dioxide limits for developing countries was leaked ahead of the COP15 summit soliciting angry reactions from countries including India and Brazil. There is now a faction called BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) threatening to walk away from Copenhagen talks.

• COP15 discussions at the Commonwealth Summit around whether Canada should be excluded from the Commonwealth group for its non-environmental Climate Change policies gained a stronghold in the media. Politicians, NGOs and academics called for its suspension, based on its exploitation of tar sands which cause three times the emissions of conventional oil extraction.

The COP15 Top 15

Politics asunder down under

• Malcolm Turnbull, former Australian leader and supporter of green policies has risen in prominence as the country is divided over the recent attempt to pass a carbon dioxide emissions cap. This politician rose five places in the political prominence charts to 10th position overall. Australian PM Kevin Rudd also rose two places to 4th position overall.

Watch your back, Barack

• European leaders increased their prominence in the political influencer rankings of the Climate Conversation. French President Nicolas Sarkozy gained an increase of 12% in the volume of mentions across the most active print publications, blogs and Twitter accounts. UK PM Gordon Brown gained an increase of 14% across the same sample, while US President Barack Obama only gained an increase of 10% during the period. Overall, however, Obama still leads with at least four times more media coverage than any other politician (analysis of volumes 5 November and 2 December).

Political discussion dominates

• Still very much a politically led conversation, politicians have 7.5 times more media coverage than any other influencer group (8,997 mentions across the most active print media, blogs and Twitter accounts from 5 November 2009 to 2 December 2009). NGOs are the second most prominent (1,192 mentions across the same data set), followed closely by academics (1,144 mentions).

Royal crowned top of league

• An eclectic group still dominate the celebrity influencer rankings in the lead up to the COP15 summit. Led by English royal HRH Prince of Wales and closely followed by musician Paul McCartney. The rest of the top five include Danish supermodel Helena Christensen, actress Lucy Lawless of Xena: Warrior Princess and author and activist Naomi Klein. Usual suspects Bono and Bob Geldoff are clearly directing their campaigner energies elsewhere – they both languish in 11th position.

Key media topics

Contesting climate change continues

• Seemingly a topic that is set to increase in prominence, ‘contesting climate change evidence’ increased in prominence, particularly online where it gained a 3-fold increase in mentions on Twitter. This increase can largely be attributed to the ongoing Climategate scandal, the rejection of a proposed climate cap in Australia, and the selection of climate change denier Nick Griffin as a representative for the European Parliament at Copenhagen.

Influencers by media type

Academics take their voice online

• Academics are taking their voices online, favouring blogs and Twitter as a means of communication. Most recent analysis reveals academics have increased their prominence in the blogosphere from 11% to 14% (of the most active blogs), and on Twitter where they have jumped from 8% to 13% (of the most active Twitter accounts). Politicians are reversing this trend, falling 53% to 38% in print media, and 47% to 33% on Twitter.

Topics by media type

Role of US loses prominence

• Attention diverted away from the role of the US at COP15 and beyond, particularly in print media, falling 20% to 13% across the most active print publications, and 21% to 5% across the most active Twitter accounts.

Topics by influencer group

Emerging topic sparks corporate interest

• A new topic‘global carbon emissions’ has moved into the top ten most prominent discussions in the Climate Conversation. The conversation is led by politicians, but corporate representatives who are currently keeping a low profile at COP15, are lending their voice to 21% of the conversation (across the most active print publications, blogs and Twitter accounts). Academics are also contributing – their collective voice contributes to 9% of the wider discussion across the same data set.

Influencer group by topic

Singing from same hymn sheet

• Academics and celebrities increased their focus on the consequences of climate change, up from 15% to 32% of academic voices across the most active print, blogs and Twitter accounts and up 30% to 33% of celebrities across the same data set. The latter diverting their attention away from expectations around the outcome of COP15, down 49% to 19%.