The Climate Conversation

As the delegates arrive in Copenhagen for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP15, we’re switching our focus to what’s happening on the ground. This means that our COP15 Top 15, Topic Trackers and Power Charts will be updated on a weekly basis starting Monday 7 December. The last update will take place on Monday 21 December, with a post-COP15 report early in 2010. Keep tuned in for further analysis and insight.

Meanwhile we take a look back at how the conversation has developed in the month leading up to the event, by looking at the most active print publications, blogs and Twitter accounts.

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The Climate Conversation gains political focus with EU leaders increasing their prominence across print and online media. China remains in the spotlight following the China-EU summit in Nianjing, and Australia’s internal rejection of a proposed 5% cap on greenhouse gas emissions gained significant attention across the globe. When looking at the most active print, blog and Twitter accounts commentating on the issues, the significant developments and observations were:

• Following the Commonwealth Summit, the Climate Conversation diverted its attention to the outcomes of the meeting. Countries in favour of a legally binding treaty at COP15 were widely reported across English language press. The generous scheme for funding developing countries, touted by Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown, received attention across the globe.

• Australian print media increased its coverage of the Copenhagen summit but only in relation to internal political events, namely the division among the opposition Liberal party regarding the proposed 5% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The outcome of the vote, which was rejected by the Senate, was also reported widely on in the global press, and particularly in the US press, as they acknowledge a similar law will need to be passed next year.

• Following the China-EU summit on 30^th November, China announced its commitment to exert ‘tremendous effort’ to meet the promised 40-45% reduction in carbon ‘intensity’ by 2020. China also urged the EU to increase its own commitment and support calls from developing countries for funding. Although welcoming China’s commitment to carbon reduction, the EU ‘struggled to assess the real impact of its proposal’.

• A document drafted by Denmark with ‘tough’ proposed carbon dioxide limits for developing countries was leaked ahead of the COP15 summit soliciting angry reactions from countries including India and Brazil. There is now a faction called BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) threatening to walk away from Copenhagen talks.

• COP15 discussions at the Commonwealth Summit around whether Canada should be excluded from the Commonwealth group for its non-environmental Climate Change policies gained a stronghold in the media. Politicians, NGOs and academics called for its suspension, based on its exploitation of tar sands which cause three times the emissions of conventional oil extraction.

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The latest commentary (at 30 November):

As the news interest in Climategate decreases, the Climate Conversation once again became a discussion dominated by political audiences. Much attention has focussed on issues relating to China, but the Commonwealth Summit and right-wing bloggers have also put a focus on North America. Specifically, when looking at the most active print, blog and Twitter accounts commentating on the issues, the significant developments and observations were:

• The news that Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabo will attend COP15 did not gain significant media coverage. However China’s announcement of intended 40-45% reduction in carbon intensity was a top story across both Chinese and global titles. This news story was reported alongside news of the US pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17%. Only on the blogosphere did people highlight that the US pledge is far more significant that that of China’s.

• An increasing emphasis on the role of the EU gained momentum, particularly as the upcoming meeting between the EU and China approaches. Debate over the proposed 20% cuts from the EU, as well as funding that the EU should give developing nations, all formed main areas for discussion.

• Contesting climate change evidence maintained prominence in the blogosphere, particularly by North American right-wing bloggers who are keen to keep the conversation around false scientific evidence in the public eye.

• COP15 discussions at the Commonwealth Summit around whether Canada should be excluded from the Commonwealth group for its non-environmental Climate Change policies gained hold in the media. Politicians, NGOs and academics called for its suspension, based on its exploitation of tar sands which cause three times the emissions of conventional oil extraction.

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The latest commentary (at 26 November):

Many developments continue to drive the Climate Conversation forward.

• US activity has been headlined with the news that Barack Obama will attend the COP15 summit on 9 December. Though welcomed by the larger part of the Climate Conversation, the announcement solicited criticism from NGO leaders for his one-day commitment in the first week, rather than more time at the end of the summit when key decisions will be made.

• The US also confirmed it is to cut greenhouse gas emissions ‘in the range of 17%’ despite legislation for such promises not having made it through Senate yet.

• Climategate has continued to dominate the Climate Conversation as a story. Academics have gained prominence in the Climate Conversation as they highlight the incident is indication of how desperate sceptics have become in the lead-up to COP15. In contrast, others feel it undermines climate change academics because of their inability to respond to the accusations made.

• Meanwhile, the EU has shown signs of taking on the role of arbiter between the US and China. The recent conclusion of a meeting between 27 EU environment ministers has led to an appeal for a rise in the level of ambition from the US and China. This has directly affected the Climate Conversation and the ‘legislative implications of climate change’ has re-emerged as a prominent topic.

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The latest commentary (at 23 November):

• ‘Climategate’ took centre stage this weekend, as hundreds of private e-mails and documents were stolen from the University of East Anglia and posted online prompting a debate over whether scientists have overstated the case for man-made climate change

• President Barack Obama is considering setting a provisional target for cutting America’s greenhouse gas emissions. Todd Stern, the US State Departments climate change envoy has said the department recognised America had to come forward with a target for cutting its emissions

• Discussions around media coverage at COP15 has been sparked following the BBC’s announcement that they will be sending 35 reporters to cover the summit, creating as much CO2 as an African village does in a whole year

• The ‘last chance’ was the spirit that dominated stories around the Climate Conversation – Gordon Brown tells environment ministers there are fewer than 50 days to set course of the next 50 years and more

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As political leaders, CEOs, media, NGOs and other organizations gather in Copenhagen for the UN conference on climate change (COP15), the conversation is hotting up.

We analyse who is leading the debate, on what topics, in what media, and how this is changing.

The latest commentary (at 20 November) on:

• The COP15 Top 15
• Key media topics
• Influencers and topics
• Influencers and media types

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