Archive for January, 2010

Copenhagen fall out – so what happens next?

Just over a month has passed since the end of the Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change and ostensibly at least it is difficult to grasp what has really changed. In fact, the recriminations and accusations over the lack of commitment to a comprehensive political and legally binding deal started almost the moment the conference finished. Fingers have been firmly pointed at the Chinese and a few other nations who eschewed concrete legal commitments to reducing carbon emissions in favour of a weaker deal that make it unlikely that temperature rises will be kept below 2° C above pre-industrial levels (the limit for preventing catastrophic climate change). Indeed, the final agreement resulted in a short accord that set no specific limits beyond that proposed by its signatories.

 

Going beyond the bluster of the media frenzy and finger pointing it seems important to ask the obvious question: what does Copenhagen mean for us? After all, we, the public, are the biggest consumers of energy  – the common perception that industry is the biggest user of energy is simply incorrect. For a start I’d strongly argue that the huge media focus on Copenhagen has made individuals much more aware of their personal responsibilities towards the environment. If countries are to meet commitments to reduce emissions, it will take a collective effort from energy consumers. People are already much more ready than ever before to question where their energy comes from and how sustainable it is alongside usual concerns over cost.

 

The issues discussed and agreed upon at Copenhagen will mean that houses, offices and public buildings will have to be super insulated and energy usage more carefully evaluated with the aid of ‘smart meters’ that manage energy consumption. Whilst hydrocarbon energy sources will still be used for many years to come, there is a growing recognition that renewable sources are only way to mitigate climate change, produce sustainable and secure energy as well as stimulate the global economy. This was certainly the consensus at the World Future Energy Summit held in Abu Dhabi last week, which I was fortunate to attend for the full four days, see here. The Summit attracted over 20,000 participants from around the world to discuss the future of alternative energy and sustainable technologies.

 

It is clear that individual communities will need to take the initiative and are taking the initiative – one of the best examples I’ve seen of this is the Baywind Energy Cooperative in Cumbria that owns six wind turbines and produces its own energy which it can sell back to the national grid. See: baywind.co.uk or foe.co.uk

Building public awareness of these opportunities is key to Copenhagen’s ultimate success.

 

Thus, whilst Copenhagen has already been marked down as a failure – not reaching a politically and legally binding agreement is highly disappointing – the discord over the agreement has highlighted that there is a pressing issue in which we all have a vested interest. Moreover, on a fundamental level Copenhagen has succeeded in getting the developing world to agree to an international role towards monitoring their cuts in CO² emissions for the first time.

 

In essence, the shift towards a more questioning and sustainable approach to energy will be Copenhagen’s legacy, something happening more quickly and fundamentally than current events indicate.

The first 100 Days of a Cameron Government – What would it look like?

What will the first hundred days of a David Cameron government look like? Who will be the key players? What policies are the Conservatives planning to implement, and do they stand up to scrutiny?

 

With only months to go until the next general election, a lack of answers to these questions is a criticism often levelled at the Conservative Party.

 

Yesterday’s Conservative Manifesto conference, organised by Conservative Intelligence, was an attempt to provide some of the clarity and detail that has been lacking.

 

The conference was a platform both for Conservative MPs to give their thoughts, as well as for Conservative Intelligence to launch their guide to the 2010 Tory manifesto, a comprehensive collation of Conservative policy announced to date in each major portfolio, predictions for the first months of a Cameron government, ministers to watch and so on.

 

Decentralisation, accountability and transparency – these are the three themes guiding Conservative policy-making, according to Director of Policy, Oliver Letwin MP. If elected to government, the party will seek to address what it seeks as a lack of all three through its domestic policies. Expect to hear these themes a lot more over the coming weeks, alongside the concept of empowerment. Empowerment of individuals, families and providers of services is how the Conservatives want to make their three themes reality. Interestingly there was neither a rowing back, nor any more detail on marriage or inheritance tax, the issues of the moment.

 

Prime Minister Cameron and his cabinet may not get an easy ride from either the rank and file of his party or even his own MPs, if Tim Montgomerie of influential grassroots website ConservativeHome is to be believed. On certain issues (e.g. climate change and Europe), there is a gulf between the Shadow Cabinet and members of the party, which will mean pressure on Cameron to move faster and further in some areas, and leave others for the second half of the next Parliament. Combine this with an intake of new Thatcherite, independently-minded Conservative MPs, and potentially a small majority in the House of Commons, and the challenge facing Cameron appears starker.

 

The questions I opened with are exactly those that will be increasingly at the forefront of minds across all business sectors, and the coming months look set to be busy as we work with clients to answer them. The first few months of a Cameron government are almost certain to include an emergency budget, the introduction of an Education Bill and the start of a Strategic Defence Review, as well as the scrapping of long-criticised Labour projects such as the id card scheme. Of course, there is always the unforeseen to wreck any crystal ball gazing; as one conference panel member remarked, ‘the [Conservative] manifesto will be the casualty of events’…

 

Posted by Jason Frayne on behalf of H&K London’s Public Affairs team