Hill+Knowlton Strategies

So it’s finally here at last – polling day. Amongst other things we’ll see today, there will undoubtedly be a host of shots of party leaders, Cabinet ministers and shadow cabinet ministers posing with their ballot papers hanging over the ballot boxes in their constituencies.

What we are perhaps less likely to see, though, are  any similar photos featuring the leaders of the UK’s so-called ‘minor’ parties.

This election could be a defining moment for these smaller parties for a number of reasons. Firstly, several of them stand a genuine chance of winning their first ever seat in Parliament, or in a few cases retaining a seat from 2005. Secondly, the likelihood of one party achieving an overall majority is still far from certain, and in the event of a hung parliament, minor parties will play a crucial role in supporting or voting down government legislation.

And thirdly, if the Liberal Democrats have their way, this may be the last general election held under the current first-past-the-post voting system. Instead, we may see the introduction of a more proportional system, the likes of which are already used for European, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland elections. As we saw in last year’s  European elections, this will increase the chances of minor parties gaining seats in Westminster. 

With this in mind, here’s a rundown of some of the seats to watch out for which have a good chance of falling into the hands of a smaller party (without wanting to offend any Scottish and Welsh readers, we’ve looked only at smaller parties and seats in England for this post, rather than including Plaid Cymru and the SNP as well. Both parties stand an excellent chance of gaining several seats though):

Brighton Pavilion: The UK lags far behind much of Europe with regard to its own Green Party, but this election might finally see a Green MP installed at Westminster. Their best chance will be in Brighton Pavilion, where party leader Caroline Lucas has fought a tooth and nail battle on local issues against her Labour opponent, Nancy Platts. Expect this one to go right down to the wire. If the party fails here, they will look to a strong showing in Lewisham Deptford and Norwich South for consolation.

Buckingham: Throwing political convention out of the window, UKIP’s Nigel Farage is challenging the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, in one of the most prosperous seats in the country. The appearance of UKIP’s leader, Lord Pearson on the BBC’s Campaign Show last month did little to help Farage’s cause but he will still push Bercow hard on a campaign platform built very much with local issues (and pubs in particular) at its heart.  

Bethnal Green & Bow/Poplar & Limehouse: In 2005, George Gallaway’s newly formed Respect party caused a major upset by ousting Oona King from the deprived Bethnal Green seat in East London. Gallaway himself is contesting the neighbouring Poplar and Limehouse seat in 2010, whilst the effort to retain Bethnal Green passes to local colleague, Abjol Miah. Gallaway has been polling third in Poplar in the run-up to today, but the margins are tight and Labour incumbent Jim Fitzpatrick is by no means safe. For Miah, the task will be equally difficult as he seeks to maintain a slender three figure majority.  

Barking: Likely to be one of the most watched-for outcomes tonight, Barking represents the main focus of the BNP’s efforts to land a seat in Westminster. Party leader Nick Griffin has thrown himself and the party’s resources into the fight and stands a decent chance in what is a tight race against Labour’s Margaret Hodge. Griffin’s efforts have also attracted a fierce anti-fascist response in the constituency from the organisation Searchlight. The Westminster seat may not be the party’s real goal though. Boundary changes have brought leadership of the local council within the BNP’s reach, and as much as Griffin is trying to win the seat, it may prove a smokescreen as the party lunges for council control.

Wyre Forest: The name of the constituency is misleading, for at its heart lies the town of Kidderminster, home to one of the UK’s most successful independent politicians of recent decades. Elected in 2001 to restore the A&E department at the local hospital, Richard Taylor was returned in 2005 and now stands again in 2010. The fight may be harder this time round however, as the Lib Dems, who previously withheld a candidate from the seat in support of Taylor, will this time contest the seat. Another independent, Esther Rantzen, has also been campaigning hard against disgraced Labour MP Margaret Moran in Luton South.

This post was written by David Chambers